海天考研网

　　油价的秘密

　　1 Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

　　翻译：过去经济衰落的日子会不会重来?自从石油输出国组织在3月决定减少原油供应，原油的价格便从去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到约26美元一桶。这次近3倍的涨价令人想起了1973年和1979～1980年两次可怕的石油恐慌，当时的油价分别涨了4倍和近3倍。前两次的油价暴涨都导致了两位数的通货膨胀和全球性的经济衰退。那么这次警告人们厄运来临的头版新闻都到哪里去了呢?

　　2 The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.

　　翻译：本周伊拉克暂停石油出口，这使油价又一次上扬。强劲的经济增长势头，随着北半球冬季的到来，有可能在短期内使石油价格涨得更高。

　　3 Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

　　翻译：然而，我们有充分的理由预期这次油价暴涨给经济带来的影响不会像20世纪70年代那么严重。与70年代相比，现在多数国家的原油价格占汽油价格的份额要小很多。在欧洲，税金在汽油零售价的比例高达4/5，因此，即使原油价格发生很大的波动，汽油价格所受的影响也不会像过去那么显着。